CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2021-05-09T11:23:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2021-05-09T11:23ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16869/-1
CME Note: CME associated with a filament eruption starting 2021-05-09T10:06Z visible in the disk center in SDO AIA 193/304 (and in the W STA EUVI 195). Clear arrival signature at L1 with IPS at 2021-05-12T05:48Z marked by sudden increase in B total to above 23 nT, a sudden jump in solar wind speed from 310 km/s to 450-490 km/s and increases in solar wind density and temperature; Bz reached negative values of around -19 nT for a brief time.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-05-12T05:48Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-05-12T15:58Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 85.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.33333 - 5.2
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: -32079.13 hour(s)
Difference: -10.17 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2025-01-07T20:56Z
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